Yesterday price made a lower high and lower low as
it continued on the downside of the multi-week cycle. Just as the rolling over
of the blue MD MA (along with a lower multi-day high) is an indication that the
multi-week high has been seen, the rolling over of the green MW MA is an
indication that the multi-month high has been seen (along with a lower
multi-week high); we have seen neither a lower MW high nor the downturn of the MW MA, but the MW MA has flattened
out and will roll over within days unless price quickly rallies back above it.
If we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle,
price will likely test the monthly pivot/MM MA confluence area at the 2017 area
before finding its multi-month low. My current expectation is that price will
indeed find support at this level and then we will once again be on the upside
of the MW and MM cycles; a new all-time high should be reached during this next
upswing of the MM cycle.
The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high
under daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance before yesterday's market open and dropping
throughout the day - a trend day down that was posited in yesterday's blog. It
appears that price saw a feeble 24Hr high overnight which came well below daily
pivot/24Hr MA resistance. A 24Hr low is projected for after the close, so once
again, with price on the downside of the daily, multi-week and likely
multi-month cycles, we are set up to see another trend day down.
We are overdue to see a MD low, overdue to see a MW
low, and in the timeframe to see a MM low. In an ideal scenario, price will
drop sharply today to test the MM MA/monthly pivot where support for all of
these cycle lows will be found. While the real world development will surely be
messier and more confusing, the key takeaway is that the next MD low should
provide a good risk/reward entry for a move to new highs.
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