Tuesday 12/1/15

Price yesterday made a lower high, lower low and lower close versus Friday's candle and closed below the weekly pivot.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and is currently trading at the level of the MD MA and weekly pivot.

With the MD MA having flattened out and price having made a lower multi-day high (discussed below), it is apparent that Friday was a MW high.  Price should now decline in a search for its MW low, projected for 12/8.   The weekly pivot or MW MA would normally be expected to be tested during this process, so that aspect has been fulfilled already with yesterday's mild decline.  While further weakness or sideways consolidation is probable, I believe that any move above the Friday high will mean that we are on a new MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making an early 24Hr high before yesterday's NY open and dropping throughout the day before making an early 24Hr low at the close.  Price rallied overnight back above the daily pivot, 24Hr MA and MD MA before making yet another half-span shift 24Hr high. This lower 24Hr high confirms the early Monday high as a lower multi-day high, which in turn confirms Friday as a multi-week high.

If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, price should drop sharply throughout the day as the 24Hr low is not projected until the close.   If yesterday's low was also a multi-day low, then the daily pivot will provide support for yet another early low and price will rally instead.  A break above the dashed trendline should indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen.