Monday 7/6/2015

The monthly chart shows June having made a lower high and lower low and closing below the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price thus far in July has made a lower high and lower low and is trading below both the July monthly pivot and the MM MA. This action, along with the flattening of the MM MA, is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle. Given that we are far overdue to have seen the MY high, it is very reasonable to assume this is the case; we are far too early in this month's candle to say it with any certainty, however.  If we are on the downside of the MY cycle, the white MY MA at 1970 is the minimum downside target, with the yearly pivot at 1948 as a secondary target before the MY low is seen.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low and closing below the MW MA, MM MA and the weekly and monthly pivots. Price early in this week's candle has opened below the weekly pivot and has made a lower high and lower low, indicative of price still being on the downside of the multi-month cycle. We are overdue for the multi-month low to be seen, and today's low was made in the area of prior support that put in the March MM low. There is no evidence whatsoever that today will be the MM low; evidence of this is will be when price regains the green MW MA and is able to turn that average upward.

The daily chart shows price last week making a rare Monday high and Tuesday low. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has taken out last week's low on the news of the Greek vote. The lower low is obvious evidence that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. We are overdue for the MW low to be seen. When the low has been made, price will be able to trade above the blue MD MA and turn that average upward. Given the overdue nature of the multi-month low as well, it is likely that the MW low will also be a MM low, and price should see a sharp rally afterward; whether price will be able to get back above the MM MA at the 2094 area will depend on where we are in the multi-year cycle.

The hourly chart shows price overnight gapping down sharply to its 24Hr low, exactly 24 hourly bars from the prior 24Hr low. Price then rallied up to the 24Hr MA where it appears to have made its 24Hr high exactly 24 bars from the prior 24Hr high. Price doesn't always behave with such rigid predictability, but it does happen with surprising frequency. The next 24Hr low is projected for after the close. The multi-day low is not projected until after the close tomorrow. Unless the overnight low was an earlier-than-projected MD low, today should see price on the downside of the 24Hr, MD, MW, and MM (and maybe MY) cycles. This should lead to a trend down day, but it is uncertain how much the large gap down may mute what should otherwise be bearish price action today.