Wednesday 7/8/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and (slightly) higher low and closing above the daily and weekly pivots and MD MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading lower to test the daily pivot and MD MA. Each of the last three days has seen large spikes down as evidenced by the large bottoming tails on the candles, but price has thus far found "soft" support on the blue MD MA. That moving average has started to flatten out, and if price can continue to hold above it, it will confirm Monday as a multi-week low. Price has thus far been trapped on the upside by the monthly pivot, indicating that we are still on the downside of the multi-month and/or multi-year cycle. It is possible that this is merely due to price being on the downside of the MD cycle and that the turn in that cycle will see price break above the monthly pivot.  With the multi-week high projected for next Tuesday, however, price has little time and lots of higher-timeframe resistance to get through to avoid making yet another lower MW high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low (and early multi-day low) at noon yesterday before rallying sharply to find its 24Hr high just after the NY close under monthly pivot resistance. Yesterday's MD low was a few ticks higher than the Sunday evening MD low, which also argues that Monday was a MW low. Price may have seen a higher 24Hr low several bars ago, as price was recently able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward as price tested white 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance. The next 24Hr high is not projected until the close, but the last few 24Hr cycles have been running abnormally short. If we are on the upside of the MD cycle and MW cycle, I would expect price to be able to find support on the Session MA for a session low near the open before breaking through 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance. Price should then retest the monthly pivot later today or in the next several days. Failure to break through daily pivot resistance would indicate that we are again on the downside of the multi-day cycle and would be hard to justify from my framework.