Wednesday 7/22/2015

Price yesterday made a lower high and lower low and closed below the daily pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low. Price is overdue for the multi-week high, and it is likely that Monday was that high as price is below MD MA support. The MW low is projected for next Tuesday, though higher timeframe support such as the weekly pivot or the MW MA or MM MA could provide support to see this low put in earlier. With the multi-month high not due until mid-August, the expectation is that price will trade down to find its MW low by this time next week and then make new all-time highs during the next leg up in the MW cycle. Failure to achieve this would indicate that the multi-year cycle has topped and is rolling over.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high on Monday that was also the multi-day high. Following a lower 24Hr high yesterday, price finally broke daily pivot/24Hr MA support and fell throughout the day- a trend-day down as was explained in yesterday's pre-market blog.

The strength of the move up obscured the MD cycle and distorted the 24Hr cycle; it appears the same is happening on this move down as we are well overdue to see a 24Hr low. This distortion, combined with the failure of price to find support on the MD MA, makes it more likely that price is on the downside of the multi-week cycle as well as the multi-day cycle. Support for the MD low could appear anywhere, on or above the higher-timeframe support levels for the MW low mentioned above. Resistance for any move up should come at the MD MA as it now provides resistance until the MW low is seen.