The monthly chart shows price thus far in July has
opened below the monthly pivot and MM MA, but is currently trading above both.
It is unclear at this stage whether the May high was a multi-year high, and even
more unclear whether this month's low will prove to be a multi-year low. As
absurd a notion as the latter may sound, the past two MY highs saw shallow
retracements into MY lows just two bars later- the exact situation we have here.
While I would prefer a pullback to the white MY MA or yearly pivot (at 1948) before
looking for evidence of a MY low, price doesn't always give us a clean, clear
picture. With more than half the month remaining, price is capable of doing
anything to clear up or further confuse the message.
The weekly chart shows price last week forming a
"hammer" candlestick under the MW MA and monthly pivot. Price early in this
week's candle has made a higher low and higher high versus last week and is
currently testing the MM MA. We are overdue for the multi-month low to be seen,
and it is possible that last week was that low; if so, price should continue to
trade above the green MW MA and turn that average upward. The next MM high is
projected for mid-August.
Where the next MM high is made will hopefully help
to answer the questions above regarding the status of the multi-year
cycle.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
statistically rare Monday low/Tuesday high. Price today has made a higher low
and higher high versus Friday and is currently trading above the MW MA and
monthly pivot. The blue MD MA is also pointing upward due to today's action.
If this is maintained through today's close, it would confirm last Monday as a
MW low. The MW high is projected for tomorrow; if we are still on the downside
of the MM cycle, the MM MA could easily provide resistance to put the MW high in
today, but if we are on the upside of the MM cycle it is likely the MW high will
extend in time past the projection.
The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a
24Hr high right at monthly pivot resistance. Price gapped down in Sunday
evening trading to make its 24Hr low just below MD MA support. Price quickly
regained the MD MA and weekly pivot and surged above Friday's high to take out
the monthly pivot. The soft support provided by the MD MA is indicative that
price is indeed on the upside of the MW cycle.
A 24Hr high is projected for just after the close
today; the MD high projection is for the same time period. It is possible that
the MM MA (not shown on hourly chart) will provide resistance to put both highs
in early. If price is instead able to extend these highs in time past
projection, it would be a sign that perhaps price is also on the upside of the
multi-month cycle as well as the multi-week cycle.
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