The monthly chart shows price with one week's
trading remaining in the July candle having made a double top with the May
all-time high and having made a higher high but lower low versus June. Price is
currently trading below the monthly pivot and the MM MA, behavior indicative of
price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle should price fail to regain
these levels by the month's close.
The weekly chart shows price last week having made
a higher high and higher low versus the prior week, but price closed below its
weekly pivot and the MM MA. Early in this week's candle price has opened below
its weekly pivot and is trading below the monthly pivot.
The strength of the move up out of the early July
low and the sharp upturn of the MW MA are signals that price was on the upside
of the multi-month cycle. Price has yet to make a higher multi-week low to
confirm this, however, and that may be what price is in the process of doing
now. The MM high is not projected until the week of 8/14. Failure to make new
all-time highs near this projection would likely indicate that the MM high was
put in early and be a signal that price is on the downside of the MY cycle.
The daily chart shows price last week equaling its
all-time high on Monday and then making a lower high, lower low, and lower close
each day after that. Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and
made a lower high and lower low and is trading below monthly pivot support.
This is the behavior of price on the downside of the multi-week cycle. A MW low
is projected for tomorrow, though the projection is merely an average length of
the prior five cycle lengths. Price could easily find soft support on the
monthly pivot and put in its MW low today, or it could retrace all or more of
the recent move up. When the MW low is made, however, we will know because
trade up through the blue MD MA and turn that moving average upward.
It was mentioned in the weekly chart commentary
that price had not made a higher MW low to confirm that the early July MW low
was also a MM low. This is very likely what price is in the process of doing
now. It was mentioned last week that Monday's high was the perfect place to put
in the overdue MW high and start a sharp pullback into a MW low that would get
the media talking about the triple top in the market. My expectation remains
for price to find its MW low near tomorrow's projected date and for price to
make new all-time highs by the next MW high. As mentioned above, failure to do
so would be a very strong warning that price is on the downside of the
multi-year cycle.
The hourly chart shows on Friday making its 24Hr
high at daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance and falling sharply throughout the day
before finding its 24Hr low on monthly pivot support. A 24Hr high was made in
Sunday night trading well below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, indicating that
price remains on the downside of the multi-day cycle. A 24Hr low is projected
for near the close today, indicating that rallies to the gold session MA are
higher percentage shorting opportunities.
Price is well overdue to put in a MD low, but both
the upside and downside of the recent MW cycles have been strong enough to mute
the MD cycle. This muting of the MD cycle during the recent MW upturn was
attributed to price also being on the upside of the MM cycle; one must be open
to the possibility that the muting of the MD cycle on this decline could also be
due to price being on the downside of the MW and MM cycles. With a MW low
projected for tomorrow, it becomes increasingly likely that the next MD low will
also be the MW low. The bigger question is whether the next 24Hr low will be
the MD low, or if the MD low will come on Tuesday (the projected MW low) or
Wednesday (the classic Wednesday low/high as a MW low/high).
No comments:
Post a Comment