Tuesday 7/21/2015

Monday was the seventh straight day with a higher low, higher high and higher close.  Yesterday's intraday high exactly matched that of the May multi-month high (and all-time high).  Price is overdue for a multi-week high to be seen; should it have been yesterday and price does a normal MW correction down to the weekly pivot or the MM or MW MA, much will be made of the triple top formed by the last three MW highs.  A double top of cycle highs usually implies that a high of the next higher cycle has also been seen, as was the case with the May/June MW double top also marking the MM top.  I have experienced too few triple tops on any timeframe, however, to have a similar confidence level in proclaiming it to mean a MM or even MY cycle high has been seen. It is also important to remember that the MM high is not projected until mid-August, so there will be plenty of time for price to find its MW low (projected for 7/28) and still make new all-time highs before the next MM high is due.

The hourly chart continues to show price on the upside of the MD cycle, finding support for its 24Hr lows on the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot. We are long overdue to see a MD low put in, as the upward strength of the higher timeframe cycles has overwhelmed the MD cycle and distorted the 24Hr cycle. I mentioned in Friday's blog that my experience has been that moves like this usually end with either an inversion (where the 24Hr high extends in time so far that it appears at the projected time of the next 24Hr low) or in a half-span shift where the 24Hr high will appear roughly 12 hourly bars from the prior 24Hr high. The distortion of the 24Hr cycle makes my confidence level in my official designations lower than normal, but it appears that perhaps we have seen both anomalies; yesterday's 24Hr high came 29 bars after the prior 24Hr low (an inversion), and we have possibly seen a half-span shift overnight with a possible 24Hr high (marked with "?") appearing 12 bars after the prior one.

Price is currently trading below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, a strong indication that the multi-day cycle has finally been seen and price is searching out its overdue MD low. The blue MD MA would be a logical place for price to find this low under normal circumstances. As mentioned yesterday, however, this MD high will likely also mark a MW high, so the correction could be deeper and take price to the weekly pivot or perhaps the lower targets of the MW or MM MAs mentioned above. The 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so this could very well be a trend-down day on the downside of the 24Hr, multi-day, and possibly multi-week cycles.