The daily chart shows price yesterday making a
lower high and higher low and slightly higher close versus the prior
day; yesterday was the second straight "inside day" for the S&P, which is
hard to imagine given the magnitude of the moves each day. Price today opened below the daily pivot but has traded higher and
taken out yesterday's high.
So far this week we have seen a Monday low and a
Tuesday high, an unusual scenario that is statistically rare but given the size
of the candles involved may just hold. If Monday was a multi-week low, and
possibly a multi-month low, then a bullish Monday low/Friday high scenario could
still occur. Thus far, however, there is little evidence that price is on the
upside of the MW cycle as price has been unable to turn the MD MA
upward.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a
24Hr high against weekly pivot resistance then dropping back below the 24Hr MA
and daily pivot to make a slightly higher 24Hr low. The inability of price to
find support (or resistance) at the daily pivot or 24Hr MA is making the
designation of multi-day highs and lows difficult; I am going with the
assumption that Wednesday's 24Hr low was also a MD low.
In overnight trading, price again rose above the
24Hr MA and daily pivot and is currently testing the MW MA. We are in the
window for the projected 24Hr high, and the MW MA is certainly capable of
providing the resistance to put this high in. It is possible, however, that the
24Hr high will extend in time on the upside of the MD and MW cycles, giving
price time today to break above the MW MA and retest the monthly pivot and
Monday's high. The MD high is projected for after the close Monday, and the MW
high is projected for Tuesday. Should price indeed see its 24Hr high in the
projected timeframe, I would expect price to finally find support for its 24Hr
low on the 24Hr MA/MD MA confluence at 2058 or the daily pivot at
2049. In either case, I expect price to retest the monthly pivot by early next week.
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