Wednesday 5/6/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot but making a lower high and lower low, closing below the weekly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and has thus been trading between the upsloping MM MA and the downsloping MD MA. Trading below the downsloping MD MA indicates that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle; the projected time for the MW low to be made is Friday, and the MM MA and monthly pivot are trying to provide support for this low. It is still possible that Thursday was the MW low, but it is just as likely that price will retest that low.

The green MW MA has flattened out, opening up the possibility that last Monday's MW high was also a MM high. If so, it would have been a higher MM high, which is bullish, but it is concerning that the high was so much earlier than projected. The concern is due to the fact that half-span shifts of a cycle are usually associated with the turn of a larger timeframe cycle. In the case of the MM cycle, half-span shifts could mean the multi-year cycle has finally peaked. It is important to note that there is not yet any confirmation of this being the case, merely a warning sign.

The hourly chart shows price having made a lower 24Hr high yesterday before the NY open and falling sharply through MD MA, MW MA, and weekly pivot support before finding its 24Hr low near the close bell. The overnight action has seen two matching session highs under daily pivot resistance. One of these session highs is also a 24Hr high, but the official designation of which one will be put off until price either breaks above the daily pivot or breaks below the overnight low (which may have been a half-span 24Hr low). The multi-day low was projected for overnight trading last night. A half-span shift of the 24Hr low would support the argument that the MD cycle has turned up, but the resistance provided by the daily pivot would argue otherwise. We are currently in the timeframe for price to make a session low. If the gold Session MA can provide support for a higher session low, it will mean the overnight low was a 24Hr low; a double bottom of 24Hr lows twelve hours apart would mark the bottoming of the multi-day cycle and price should be able to eclipse the daily pivot resistance in today's trading. How price then reacts to the MD, MA, weekly pivot, and MW MA resistance will tell us more about where we are in the MW and MM cycles.