Monday 5/4/2015 - (mostly) Bullish pictures for the S&P

The monthly chart shows price this month opening below its monthly pivot and thus far in this young candle having made a higher low and lower high. Last month price made a higher low and higher (all-time) high compared to the March candle after finding support on the MM MA. Everything in this chart shows price on the upside of the multi-year cycle. The MY high was projected for last month, and the MY low is projected for next month.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher (all-time) high, a lower low and a lower close versus the prior week. Price this week has thus far opened above its weekly pivot and is trading higher. While the breakout to new highs last week was done on a bearish candlestick, there is nothing bearish about this chart; price is acting as if it is on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is projected for mid-June.

The daily chart shows price today opening above its daily pivot and thus far making a higher low and higher high versus Friday's candle. Price is back above the MD and MW MAs and above the weekly pivot, behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-day and multi-week cycles. Again this is a bullish picture, but there are finally some concerns that can be raised. Last week saw a bearish Monday high/Thursday low scenario as well as the rolling over of the MD MA and the flattening of the MW MA, meaning that Monday was a MW high. This MW high was a half-span shift versus the projection. The MW low is projected for the end of this week, but it is possible that the MW low saw its own half-span shift and occurred Thursday on monthly pivot and MM MA support. It is too early to say this for sure however, and the even if it were the case, the half-span shifts themselves create a concern that a higher timeframe cycle is rolling over. The sharp close below the MW MA and weekly pivot last week is hard to justify if we are on the upside of the MM cycle, even if those areas of support were reclaimed the following day. Another test of the monthly pivot this week will raise more eyebrows for me, but for now I expect price to lead the MD and MW MAs upward to new highs at the next MW high.

The hourly chart shows price last Friday finding support throughout the day on the gold Session MA until price found its 24Hr high at the blue MD MA. Price corrected sideways overnight, squeezing between Session MA resistance and MD MA support before making its 24Hr low at the 4:00am bar and surging higher above Friday's high. This action confirmed Thursday's low as a multi-day low. We are slightly past projection for the MD high so we must be aware that the next 24Hr high, due near the close of NY trading, could also be the MD high. Meanwhile, price should pull back into the NY open as it searches for a (higher) session low. The gold Session MA should provide support for this low and price should then take out this morning's high. Failure to do so would indicate that the 24Hr high (and possibly the MD high) was seen two candles ago and we should expect price to then test the confluence of support at the 2097-2099 area.