Both the daily and hourly charts show an
extraordinary amount of ambiguity today, which says a lot since price has spent
most of the rebirth of this blog chopping back and forth in a triangle pattern.
Being a conservative trader, I find it best to reduce both trading size and trading
frequency during times like this. Combined with feeling under the weather, I
will likely sit the day out and hope price offers more clues as to its
intentions by day's end.
Price yesterday made a double top with the prior day and
closed below its daily pivot. Price today has opened below its daily pivot and
made a lower high and lower low and is now testing the MM MA and monthly pivot
for support. This action has turned the blue MD MA back down, though that could
change by day's end should prices rally.
The status of the multi-week cycle is very much in
question. It is possible that last Thursday was a multi-week low and we are
merely experiencing the downside of the multi-day cycle now. It is also
possible that Thursday was the MW low that led straight into an early MW high on
Friday. Finally, it is conceivable that Thursday was not the MW low and that
Friday was just a strong move on the upside of the multi-day cycle. In the
first scenario, price should find support on the MM MA or monthly pivot and take
out the Friday/Monday high by week's end. The other two scenarios are both
bearish: if Thursday was not the MW low, price should match or take out that low
in the next few days as it finds the MW low; if Thursday was a MW low and Friday
was an early MW high, this means price should trend lower well into next week on
the downside of the MW and likely the MM cycles. Lending credence to the last
(and most bearish scenario), the MW MA on the weekly chart (not shown) has
flattened out, indicating a possible MM high has been seen.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a
24Hr high that exactly matched the prior 24Hr high. This double-topping of 24Hr
highs means that one of them was a multi-day high (I'll make the official
designation after I see how the next MD cycle plays out). With price on the
downside of the MD cycle, I mentioned that I would expect price to test the
green MW MA and possible the 2093 area of weekly pivot and (at the time) MD MA
support. Price initially found support at the MW MA for several hours before
breaking through that support as well as the MD MA and weekly pivot support
during overnight trading. Price has found support on the MM MA (shown on daily
chart) and has rallied the past few bars to test the gold Session MA in the time
window to make a session cycle high.
The status of the 24Hr cycle is uncertain at this
point. It is possible that MW MA support put in an early 24Hr low late evening
and that the brief close above the MW MA overnight was an early 24Hr high. If
this is the case, the gold Session MA should provide resistance for this move
and price should trend lower throughout the day as it searches out its MD low
projected for near the close today. It is also possible that the 24Hr low was
made one bar past projection just four hourly candles ago. If this is the case,
price should break through Session MA resistance and test higher timeframe
resistance in the form of the MD MA, weekly pivot, 24Hr MA, MW MA, and daily
pivot. Lastly, it is possible that the 24Hr low is extending in time and we
will see one more lower session cycle low which also forms the 24Hr low.
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