Monday 5/18/2015

The monthly chart shows price this month has thus far made a higher low and higher (all-time) high. Trading above the monthly pivot and upsloping MM MA, price is behaving as if it still on the upside of the multi-year cycle. We are overdue for a MY high, and the MY low is projected for next month.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high. Price this week has thus far had a lower high and higher low versus last week; with price being above the weekly pivot and the upsloping green MW MA, it appears that price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is projected for mid-June.

In the daily chart we can see that price last week made a Tuesday low and a Friday high, closing above the upsloping blue MD MA and the weekly pivot which is action indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-week cycle. The MW high is projected for today, but the high could have occurred on Friday or may extend in time past projection. When the MW high is in, price will no longer find support on the weekly pivot or MD MA and will test the MW MA, MM MA, or monthly pivot for support for the MW low projected for the end of this month.

With the MM high due in mid-June there is time for price to see one more higher MW high after the current one. It is important to note however that the MW and MM cycles have been running shorter in length than normal lately as price has been trapped in a tight trading range for quite some time. While Thursday saw a large bullish candlestick to bring price near the April high, Friday's bar that created the new all-time high was an indecisive candle that could be construed as a spinning top. Notice also that the green MW MA is still moving sideways despite the all-time highs on Friday. Price is more susceptible to whipping above and below higher-timeframe MAs when they are moving sideways, so we must be aware that price may not find support there for the next MW low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in overnight trading early Friday morning then forming a 24Hr low late morning under the 24Hr MA but above the daily pivot. Price has spent most of the Sunday overnight trading below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that price is on the downside of the multi-day cycle. It is possible that the brief foray above the daily pivot 5-6 hours ago formed a lower 24Hr high. If so, price should make a lower session high near the NY open then trade lower in search of its next 24Hr low. That next 24Hr low is projected for late morning, and the MD low is already overdue, but I expect price to test the weekly pivot or MD MA before the 24Hr (and MD) low is seen. Should price move back above the daily pivot, however, I will have to accept that the 24Hr low (and likely MD low) was already seen.