Thursday 5/21/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and closing below the daily pivot and on MD MA support. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below the MD MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. As mentioned yesterday, given that we are overdue for a multi-week high, we must be wary that the multi-day high is also a multi-week high. Unless price can regain the MD MA today, it is likely that Tuesday was the MW high and that price will trade lower over the next several days and test at least the weekly pivot or the green MW MA for support. The MW low is projected for next Thursday (5/28).

Also mentioned yesterday and still in play today is the Monday low/Tuesday high scenario we have thus far; this would be a very rare pattern and as such, the odds greatly favor it not standing by week's end. If Tuesday was indeed a MW high, I would expect price today and/or tomorrow to drop below Monday's low to give us a more normal (for bearish cycles) early week high/late week low. If Tuesday was merely a MD high, then price should find soft support on the MD MA and turn back up to take out Tuesday's high for a more normal (for bullish cycles) early week low/late week high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday bumping against the underside of the daily pivot and the downsloping white 24Hr MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. There was a large bullish bar that closed above the daily pivot an hour before the close that was completely erased by the large bearish bar at the NY close. I have marked these bars with a "?" as their presence does not fit well with the usual 24Hr cycles. It certainly seems like the bullish bar should be a 24Hr high, but that would require an intervening 24Hr low which would make for some abnormally long and short cycles. Bars like this happen relatively infrequently and are usually news-related, and I have found it is usually best to just ignore them as aberrations.

Price in after-hours trading dropped below the MD MA and made a 24Hr low, then traded mostly sideways overnight before its recent bounce back up to the 24Hr MA. The current bar has seen price break above the 24Hr MA to test the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and the MD MA or the daily pivot at 2124 would be logical places for price to find resistance to put in the high, especially if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. The MD low is projected for after the close today, but could appear earlier or later depending on the status of the MW cycle. Should the daily pivot not provide resistance today, it will mean that yesterday's 24Hr low was also an early MD low.