Monday 5/11/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in May making a higher low and lower high than April- an inside bar. Price is trading above its monthly pivot and above the upsloping MM MA, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-year cycle. The multi-year high is overdue, and the multi-year low is projected for June; it is possible that we could see a cycle inversion, where the projected low instead becomes the overdue high. As always, the projections are secondary to price behavior, and thus far price behavior on the monthly chart is bullish.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low and having dipped below the MM MA; price bounced, however, and closed above its weekly pivot and the MW MA and made a higher close than the prior week. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and traded in a very tight range. While last week's action was scary as it unfolded, long wicks and tails are far less important than the bodies of the candlesticks; closing above the weekly pivot and MW MA is indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Monday high and Thursday low for the week, an oddly bearish scenario for a week that closed above the prior week's close. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far traded in a tight range; today's action, combined with Friday's, has flattened out the blue MD MA and turned the green MW MA slightly upward. This may indicate that Thursday was a multi-week low, but until those two MAs are rising on a closing basis or the April high is eclipsed the MW low is still not confirmed; in any case, this MW low will be lower than the prior MW low. The fact that price is above the MD MA and weekly pivot would seem to indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  If so, it is important that price make a higher MW high so we do not have a lower low/lower high scenario of MW tops which would indicate that the April MW high was also an early MM high.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high underneath the blue MD MA and then finding its 24Hr low three bars later above the white 24Hr MA. This higher 24Hr low confirmed the Thursday low as a MD low. Price was then above to surge above the MD MA and weekly pivot and also above the green MW MA before making an earlier than projected 24Hr high. Price has traded sideways since then, recently finding support on the 24Hr MA for what was possibly a 24Hr low. The 24Hr high is projected for noon and we are overdue for the multi-day high; it is possible that Friday's high was the MD high, in which case price today should not see much of a bounce from here before trading back below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot to test the green MW MA or MD MA/weekly pivot confluence in the 2093 area for support for the MD low projected for near the close tomorrow.