Thursday 5/14/2015

Price yesterday made a higher high and higher low versus Tuesday but closed relatively unchanged. Price today opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it has thus far formed an inside day versus yesterday. Given the upturn in the blue MD MA, I have finally designated last Thursday's low as a multi-week low. The MW high is projected for Monday. We are currently in a Monday high/Tuesday low situation for the week; readers of this blog should by now know that is a situation that is incredibly unlikely to last by week's end. Although price still appears to be trapped in a tight trading range, given that we are on the upside of the MW cycle the odds highly favor a move up today and/or tomorrow to eclipse Monday's high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a Session high shortly after the open that was essentially a double top with the prior session high. The second session high was 3/4 of a point higher, and as such I have marked it as the 24Hr high, though an argument could be made for designating the prior session high as the 24Hr high given its higher close and the fact that the gold Session MA had already flattened out before the second session high. Regardless, price then broke below the white 24Hr MA and found support in the 2092 area of the daily pivot as suggested in yesterday's post. Price broke above the new daily pivot and the 24Hr MA several bars ago; the 24Hr high is either just past projection or is projected for just after the open, depending on which 24Hr high designation from yesterday is used.

A multi-day high was projected for overnight. It is possible that yesterday's 24Hr high was the MD high, in which case today should see a lower or matching 24Hr high. The alternative is that the MD high is extending in time, and price will rally today above yesterday's high before finding the MD high. The latter is more bullish, not only for the obvious reason that price will be higher, but mainly because a lower MD high would indicate that the double top of 5/8 and 5/11 was also a multi-week high. A MD low is projected for tomorrow near the close, which would seem to argue for a bearish conclusion to the Monday high/Tuesday low scenario mentioned above. Higher timeframe cycles trump lower timeframe cycles, however, mainly because higher timeframe support/resistance can cause early turns in the lower timeframe cycles. Given the tight, choppy trading pattern we seem to be stuck in (no more than two consecutive up or down days since the late April MW high), the bulls'  best case may be to make a high for the week today and correct into a (higher) MD low on Friday.