Wednesday 2/24/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday with an "inside" day and lower close versus Monday with price finding support on the MD MA.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot and is currently trading below the MD MA and weekly pivot.   This behavior indicates that Monday was likely the multi-week high and price will now be falling into its MW low projected for 3/4.  

 It remains to be seen whether the remaining higher timeframe support level, the MW MA, will be able to support price for an early MW low.  While the failure of the MW MA to support price would not necessarily be a death knell for the bulls, a breach of the February lows would be, indicating that price is on the downside of the multi-month and multi-year cycles.   Price finding support at the MW MA for an early MW low would be a very bullish sign and indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high just above the 24Hr MA (confirming Monday as a multi-day high) and then falling sharply into the close.  Price has continued to drop in overnight and pre-market trading.  It is uncertain whether price made an overnight 24Hr low followed quickly by a 24Hr high under MD MA resistance, but I currently lean towards that being the case.  While we did not see a higher Session low that almost always confirms a 24Hr low, we did see a slight price trade above the Session MA and turn that average slightly higher for a few hours.  If we did see an overnight 24Hr low, it sets us up for a very bearish trend day down, as price trades on the downside of the MW, MD, and daily cycles.