The monthly chart shows price thus far in February
having made a lower high and lower low than January's candle, but price is
currently trading above its monthly pivot and just above last month's close.
Price has obviously been trading on the downside of the multi-year cycle, but if
price could close the month above its monthly pivot it would be a sign that
perhaps the multi-year low has been seen. The monthly candle has 6 trading days
left, however, and much can happen in that time. Other than price reclaiming
the monthly pivot, nothing in the monthly chart and its implications has
changed, so I suggest readers go back and read any of the last few weeks'
commentary.
The weekly chart shows price last week having made
a higher low, high and close versus the prior week. Price early in this week's
candle has opened above its weekly pivot and has made a higher high. This is
behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle, but
until this week closes I will refrain from officially designating last week as
the multi-month low. The reason for this is that should price close down for
the week, the setup would look very similar to the December bottom which still
stands as a possible MM low. That bounce also saw price briefly rise above the
MM MA, but ultimately finding resistance and closing below it, and it is very
possible that the same thing could happen here.
I warned on Friday that the risk/reward situation
for bulls was very poor, and while price today has taken out Friday's high, that
situation has not changed. If early February saw the overdue MM low, we are
still overdue for a MM high to be seen. The MM MA would be a logical place for
price to find resistance for this high, and an intra-bar move above this
resistance is fairly insignificant. Should price be able to close this week
above the MM MA and trade even higher next week, the bullish case would be
strengthened.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
Thursday high at monthly pivot and MM MA resistance and trading slightly lower
on Friday as price moved on the downside of the multi-day cycle. Given that the
MW high was projected for tomorrow and that higher timeframe resistance can
often see such highs made earlier than projection, I said on Friday that a low
risk/high reward short was in order. I mentioned that such trades are usually
losers, and this one proved no different as Thursday's swing high has been taken
out in overnight and pre-market trading. As mentioned above, however, the
situation right now is not entirely different than the one in late December in
which price also briefly rose above MM MA resistance. The fact remains that we
have seen a lower MW (and MM) low and thus far have not broken above the prior
MW high in the timeframe to see a MW high. Even if price were to break solidly above
the MM MA for the next MW high, the odds are very high that price would revisit
the MM MA and/or monthly pivot before seeing its next MW low projected for
3/4.
The hourly chart show price on Friday making a
lower 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance, classic behavior on the downside
of the multi-day cycle. Price then made its 24Hr low (and MD low) in an area that
would become the new weekly pivot; the fact that the weekly pivot at that
time was lower is what lead me to believe that price would test the MD MA before
finding this MD low.
Price has risen sharply in overnight and pre-market
trading and taken out last week's high. We are slightly overdue to see a 24Hr
high, and it is possible that high was seen four bars ago. If so, price should
break Session MA support and trade lower into its 24Hr low projected for
noon.
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