Thursday 2/11/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low but lower close versus Tuesday as price continues on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  The search for the multi-week low, projected for today, has continued in today's trading, with price taking out the January MW low; this indicates that price is also on the downside of the multi-month cycle.

 

Though today is the projected date for the MW low and the projections are frequently accurate, it is vital to remember that the projections are merely a timing guide for when we should expect price to behave in a certain manner; price will do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, however, so we must always let price behavior dictate.  When the MW low is in, price will finally be able to close above the blue MD MA and will turn that average higher as it searches for its next MW high (projected for 2/23).

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a late morning 24Hr high under MD MA resistance and falling sharply into the close.  The decline continued in overnight trading, as price dropped further to take out the January MW low.  We are overdue to see a 24Hr low, unless the brief foray above the Session MA in overnight trading marked another early 24Hr low and high.  At this point, I will work under the assumption that no overnight low/high was seen, and that the next 24Hr high is due late morning.  Price is currently testing the Session MA again, and if it can close above this average and turn it upward, we can assume that the 24Hr low was seen just one bar ago.

 

We are in the timeframe for price to make a multi-day low, and as mentioned above, we are also in the timeframe for price to see a multi-week low.  While it is possible that we see one more MD cycle before the MW low is in, there is a good chance that the next MD low (occurring either this 24Hr low or the next) will start a much needed rally into the next MW high.