Friday 2/26/16

Price yesterday made a higher low, high and close versus Wednesday.  Thus far today price has opened above its daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high.   It is obvious that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle, but the question remains whether it is the same MW cycle that started with the 2/11 MW low or if price is on a new MW cycle that started with Wednesday's low.  While price recovered to close higher that day, the decline had tested the MW MA where price would be expected to find support if price were on the upside of the MM cycle.  Also, while the MD MA did not turn lower- the usual evidence of a MW high having been seen-  there was at least a slight "hitch" in the MD MA before resuming its move upward.

The action this week is unquestionably bullish, regardless of where we are in the MW cycle.  If price is still searching for an overdue MW high, the fact that the high has extended in time and has eclipsed all higher timeframe resistance indicates that price is certainly on the upside of the multi-month cycle and quite possibly the multi-year cycle.  While a MW high would be expected to be seen any day now (and the 1988 area would be a likely level to see this overdue high), all higher timeframe MA and pivots will now be available to act as support for the MW low projected for 3/4.  Alternatively, if this week saw a Monday MW high and Wednesday MW low, it is even more bullish as price would be expected to rise into its next MW high projected for 3/15.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a higher Session low late morning and surging higher throughout the day.  While the 24Hr high was not projected until after the close, I expressed bearish concerns that we would perhaps see an early, lower 24Hr high.  These concerns were quickly dashed as price surged out of the higher Session low and moved higher into the close.

It is unclear whether a 24Hr high and low were seen in overnight trading as price flatlined along the Session MA.   If so, it is a sign of bullish strength that price was able to make a 24Hr low so far above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA.   If not, we are overdue for the 24Hr high to be seen and price should be expected to break below Session MA support and test the 24Hr MA or daily pivot for support for the 24Hr low.