Wednesday 2/17/16

Price yesterday gapped higher and closed near its highs and above the MW MA.  Thus far today, price has opened above its daily pivot and has made a higher high.  The blue MD MA is now moving upward, confirming last Thursday as a multi-week low.  The ability of price to trade above the weekly pivot and the MW MA hints that Thursday was also a multi-month low.  The MW high is projected for 2/23, and the MM MA and/or monthly pivot are the next logical targets for price to find resistance for that high, especially if price is still on the downside of the multi-year cycle.  The ability of price to rally above these higher timeframe resistance areas would give greater hope to the bulls that price may have seen its multi-year low.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low just below daily pivot and MW MA support and then rising into its 24Hr high after the NY close.  Price made its 24Hr low in overnight trading on 24Hr MA/daily pivot support and has since taken out yesterday's high, behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle.

 

It is unclear whether yesterday's 24Hr low was also a MD low.  It was mentioned yesterday that the 24Hr low (or the subsequent one) would likely be the MD low, but while it was a lower 24Hr low there was no confirming lower 24Hr high.  I also had mentioned the possibility (that I considered unlikely) that price would find support for its MD low on the MW MA, and I am leaning toward that being the case.  If so, it is a hint that last week was also a multi-month low, as the MW MA acting as support for price is indicative of being on the upside of the MM cycle. Should price stage a steeper decline down to the MD MA after its next 24Hr high, I would be more likely to believe that yesterday was not the MD low.

 

Currently price is in the timeframe to make a Session low, and the gold Session MA should provide support for this low and allow price to move higher in search of its 24Hr high which is projected for after the close.  Failure of the Session MA to provide support for a session low would be a sign that we have seen an early 24Hr high (in fact, another half-span shift) and likely indicate that today is the MD high and Tuesday's high was not.