Monday 2/15/16

The monthly chart shows price thus far in February having made a lower high and lower low than the prior month, and with price trading below the monthly and yearly pivots and the MM and MY MAs it is obvious that price is trading on the downside of the multi-year cycle. The question remains whether we are well overdue to see a multi-year low or whether August and November saw an intervening MY low and high and we are now on the downside of a fresh MY cycle whose low is not expected until November of this year.  The upturn of the pink MM MA in December and the fact that price spent the entire month of November above the monthly and yearly pivots and MM and MY MAs argue that price had seen a MY low in August, but the fact that there has been no obvious higher multi-month low since the August low argues against a MY low having been seen.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high, lower low and lower close versus the prior week, with price taking out the low from three weeks earlier indicating price was still on the downside of the multi-month cycle.  A similar question exists on the weekly chart as to whether we are very overdue for a multi-month low or if there was an intervening MM low and high since the August MM low.  The only real candidates for any intervening MM low and high would be the December low and January high, but there was no higher multi-week low after the December low to confirm it as a MM low.  This may be because price ran into MM MA resistance and the strength of the downward momentum of the MY and MM cycles muted the expression of the MW cycle.  If last week proves to be a MM low, it would be more likely that it was an overdue MM low and give some hope that it was also an overdue MY low; if price continues to decline into a mid-March MM low, it would argue that December was indeed an intervening MM low and confirm that we are on the downside of a fresh MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price on Friday opening above its daily pivot and closing above the MD MA.  Price today has again opened above its daily pivot and has taken out last week's high and is testing the MW MA.  This behavior indicates that last Thursday was a multi-week low and price is now on the upside of the MW cycle.  A MW high is projected for next Tuesday.  If price is still on the downside of the MM cycle, price should find resistance at the MW MA; if price is able to trade above the MW MA and turn that average upward over the course of this week it would indicate that last week was also a multi-month low and price is now on the upside of the MM cycle.  As mentioned above, this would give hope that this MM low was also an overdue multi-year low.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low on Thursday, finding support on the daily pivot/24Hr MA for a higher 24Hr low before the open on Friday, and moving relentlessly higher since.  The extension of the 24Hr high, which is well overdue, and the ability of price to trade above MD MA and weekly pivot resistance are indications that Thursday was also a MW low. 

With price currently trading below the gold Session MA, it is likely that the overdue 24Hr high was seen two bars ago and price should now be expected to drop to the 24Hr MA or perhaps even the daily pivot before finding its overdue 24Hr low.