Thursday 2/25/16

Price yesterday made a lower high and lower low but higher close versus Tuesday, closing back above the monthly pivot.  While Monday was certainly a multi-day high and a MD low was seen yesterday, there remains some uncertainty whether Monday was also the MW high. 

 

Should Monday's high hold and price retests the MW MA over the next few days, it will become evident that it was the MW high. Should price eclipse Monday's high this week, however, it would open up two possibilities; either the MW high has yet to be seen (more likely), or Monday was a MW high, yesterday was a MW low, and we are starting on a fresh MW upcycle.   The latter scenario is far less likely but would signal that price is certainly on the upside of the MM cycle and likely the MY cycle.  My expectation is that price will see a steeper decline prior to the projected 3/4 MW low.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday falling sharply into its late morning 24Hr low (and MD low) just above the MW MA.  Price then surged higher for the remainder of the day before finding resistance for its 24Hr high after the close just above the prior 24Hr high.  Price found a higher 24Hr low on MW MA support in overnight trading and has since regained the gold Session MA.  We are currently correcting into a session low, which should find support on the Session MA.

 

A 24Hr high is not projected until after the close.  If price is on the upside of the MW cycle it should easily be able to take out yesterday's 24Hr high (and Monday's MD high).  Failure to do so would indicate that Monday was indeed the MW high and I would expect price to retest and likely take out yesterday's low in the next two weeks.

 

I am particularly wary of the Session MA not providing support on this current test, which would mean that an hour ago we saw a half-shift, lower 24Hr high and would mean yesterday was an early MD high.  This lower MD high would in turn confirm Monday as the MW high.  This is meaningless speculation, however, and we must let price show us whether it will find support and move higher or break support and move lower.