Tuesday 2/2/16

Price yesterday made a higher low, higher high and slightly higher close versus Friday's candle, closing just above the monthly pivot.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot but is currently trading lower and has taken out yesterday's low.

Today's action is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  We are also in the timeframe to see a multi-week high, so we must consider the possibility that yesterday was also a MW high.  If so, price would be expected to test the green MW MA before finding its MW low, projected for 2/11.   It is possible that price will see one more MD cycle before making its MW high, in which case price should find support yet again at the blue MD MA before moving higher, perhaps to test the pink MM MA.    How price interacts with the MD MA will tell us which scenario is unfolding.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low on daily pivot support and rallying up to its 24Hr high near the close.  Price dropped below daily pivot and 24Hr MA support in overnight trading as it searches for its 24Hr low which is projected for noon.   I would expect price to drop down to the MD MA before the 24Hr low is found.

We are in the timeframe to see a multi-day low, so it will be interesting to see how price rebounds from its next 24Hr low.   If we are still on the upside of the MW cycle, price should find its 24Hr low (and MD low) at the MD MA and then rally above yesterday's high either today or tomorrow.   If we are on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD low may extend in time, meaning we will see a 24Hr low late morning/noon, a 24Hr high below 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance, and then a lower 24Hr low tomorrow.  Whether price finds support on the MD MA, and how it bounces afterward, will let us know which scenario is unfolding.