Wednesday 9/2/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing back below the MD MA and weekly pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it and has tested the weekly pivot from below.

It is possible that yesterday saw a multi-day low being made; if so, it was a higher MD low than last Monday, confirming last Monday as a multi-week low. While this would not be entirely bullish, as it was still a lower MW low than the prior one, it is somewhat bullish in that it was a half-span shift of the MW low; half-span shifts of cycles usually imply that a larger timeframe cycle has turned. If the larger multi-month cycle has turned upward, then that cycle also saw a half-span shift, as the MM low was not projected until early October. Following the logic, if the MM cycle has seen a half-span shift, it implies that the multi-year cycle has turned upward. 

This is all logical and quite possible, but there are still too many "ifs" and implications involved to turn bullish just yet. If price is on the downside of the MM cycle, the green MW MA should provide resistance for any MW high; should price eclipse this MA, the bullish argument would start to look stronger.

The hourly chart shows price attempting to rally at yesterday's NY open but finding resistance at the weekly pivot and then falling throughout the remainder of the day. Price rallied in overnight trading to find its overdue 24Hr high, again at weekly pivot resistance. While we should be probing lower in search of the 24Hr low (projected for near the close), price has instead found solid support at the white 24Hr MA/daily pivot confluence area.

If this support is able to hold and force an early 24Hr low, it would indicate that yesterday was a multi-day low. While this would be somewhat bullish for the reasons mentioned above, bulls would still need to do much work before the next MD high is seen. Failure to make a higher MD high would mean that Friday saw a half-span shift of the MW high, just as it saw a half-span shift of the MW low. This usually indicates a triangle pattern is forming, and as triangles are usually continuation patterns, it could mean price is just consolidating before the next leg down. Of course, if 24Hr MA/daily pivot support fails to hold and price drops hard into its 24Hr low, then all of this is moot.