Where price is in the multi-week cycle is difficult to discern as price continues to churn above and below the MD MA and weekly pivot; while it was evident price had been on the upside of the MW cycle yesterday, it is possible that yesterday saw yet another early MW high and that price is now on the downside of the MW cycle. If so, with two sets of early MW highs and lows behind us, perhaps price is ready for another leg down as price searches for its multi-month low projected for late September/early October. Or price could make yet another early MW low as price continues its consolidation. We can only get a good idea of where price is going when we can see the path it is taking, and right now price is doing an excellent job of covering its tracks. Of the many possibilities however, more are bearish so the odds argue against being bullish.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday having made a 24Hr high before the NY open, confirmed by a lower Session high just after the open, a scenario discussed in yesterday's pre-open blog. Price fell throughout the remainder of the day until price found support for its 24Hr low on the weekly pivot. I had mentioned yesterday that I expected price to reach the MD MA/MW MA/weekly pivot confluence within the next day or two, as I believed that yesterday's 24Hr high would also be a multi-day high. The lower 24Hr high seen this morning confirms yesterday as a multi-day high.
A 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, and the next 24Hr low will likely also be a MD low. While price being on the downside of the 24Hr and MD cycles would normally mean price should make lower highs and lower lows throughout the day, I am open to the possibility of the weekly pivot providing soft support for an early 24Hr low and a continuation of the price consolidation. Should price have a trend day down, it may argue that price is leaving its consolidation and that price will continue lower into the projected late September/early October multi-month low.
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