The monthly chart shows price in September having
opened below its monthly pivot and currently trading below the MM MA, MY MA, and
yearly pivot as well; this is behavior indicative of price being on the downside
of the multi-year cycle. We are actually overdue for a multi-year low to be
seen; as mentioned in past weeks, the low could have already been seen or a
late September/early October low would also make sense given the projection for
the next multi-month low as discussed below.
The yearly pivot or MY MA would be logical places
for price to find support for its MY low; they provided soft support for last
month's candle closing, and it remains to be seen if they will provide soft
support by the close of this month. While I never discuss any cycle larger than
the multi-year cycle, the higher MY highs/higher MY lows we have witnessed since 2009 are
indicative of being on the upside of an even larger cycle. Should price fail to
find support at the yearly pivot or MY MA for the MY low, it could indicate that
the larger cycle has rolled over and we will start to see a period of lower MY
highs and lower MY lows. If price does find soft support at these levels, it
would be reasonable to expect new highs when the MY cycle turns
upward.
The weekly chart shows price last week making a
lower high and higher low but lower close, closing below all higher-timeframe
pivots and MAs. Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly
pivot and thus far had another "inside" day. Price has obviously been on the
downside of the multi-month cycle, and a MM low is projected for the week of
October 2nd. It is possible, as discussed numerous times recently, that a
half-span MM low was already seen. There is no way of knowing until price tells
us by either making new lows or trading above the green MW MA and turning that
average upward.
The daily chart shows price last week making a rare
Monday high/Tuesday low, a pattern I may have seen once before if ever. No known significance to this, just interesting to me. Price
today opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading higher, testing
weekly pivot and MD MA resistance.
With the MD MA pointing downward and a lower
multi-day high having been seen on Thursday, the 8/28 high has been confirmed as
a multi-week high. This was a half-span shift of the MW high, just as we had
seen a half-span shift of the MW low several days earlier. Half-span shifts in
cycles usually occur when a larger cycle is turning out of its trough or peak
and conflicting with one or more shorter cycles. They also frequently lead to
the formation of triangle patterns. With a MW low not projected until next
Tuesday, price should fall sharply this week. Failure to do so could very well
indicate that a triangle consolidation pattern is developing.
The hourly chart shows price making its multi-day
high at monthly pivot resistance and falling until it found its 24Hr low before
the NY close on Friday. Price found resistance for its next 24Hr high under MD
MA resistance but has thus far corrected mostly sideways on the downside of the
24Hr cycle. The 24Hr low is projected for 3pm EST, and it remains to be seen if
the white 24Hr MA and/or daily pivot will provide support for this low. If so,
it would mean that Friday's low was also a MD low and lend credence to the
scenario of a developing triangle pattern.
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