Monday 9/14/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in September having made a lower high and higher low versus August's large bearish candle. Price is currently trading under the monthly pivot, the MY MA and the declining MM MA but appears to have found support at the yearly pivot.

As mentioned in prior Monday posts, it is obvious that price is on the downside of the multi-year cycle and price is searching for support that will enable it to put in its multi-year low. It is possible that the MY MA and/or the yearly pivot will provide support for that low (or that it already has and the low was seen last month). When the low has been seen, price will first trade above the monthly pivot, then above the MM MA and eventually turn that average upward. Until that happens, the multi-year low could very well still be in front of us.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low, higher high and higher low versus the prior week. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the weekly pivot and has thus far made an "inside" candle. The action of the last two bars has turned the green MW MA upward; while that could easily change by week's end if price sells off, I have marked the 8/28 week's low as an early multi-month low. This half-shift of the MM low was confirmed by the higher MW low (which can be seen on the daily chart).

A multi-month high is not projected until mid-October, but half-span cycle shifts often occur in pairs, so it will be interesting to see if price makes an early MM high and turns back down. An early MM high would be bearish and increase the odds that price is just consolidating after the sharp drop. Should the MM high come at projection or later, it would be more bullish, but still not be definitive evidence that the MY low is behind us. Thus far, the monthly pivot continues to provide resistance, indicating price is likely still on the downside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday high; regular readers of this blog will know that a Wednesday high (or low) will often mark a multi-week high (or low). A MW high is not projected until next Monday, but we have already seen a half-shift of the MW low and as mentioned above they often come in pairs. Thus far, however, the MD MA continues to provide support for price, indicating that price is still on the upside of the MW cycle. When the MW high is in, price sill fall below the MD MA and turn that average downward.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making its 24Hr low before the NY open and then trading through MW MA resistance in the afternoon en route to its 24Hr high. That high was seen early in Sunday evening trading and price has drifted back down to the white 24Hr MA just before the NY open this morning. We are overdue to see a 24Hr low, and it is possible that the double-bottom of Session lows could mark that low. We are also overdue to see a MD high, however, and it is possible that the prior 24Hr high was also a MD high. If so, price may have to probe lower before finding support for its 24Hr low. An alternative is that the 24Hr low is found here, but price has a muted rise into a lower 24Hr high before dropping harder into its MD low.