The daily chart shows price yesterday making a
higher high and higher low but lower close versus Friday. Price thus far today
has made a lower low and lower high but is currently trading higher versus
yesterday's close. If that is starting to sound familiar, it is because we are
seeing it quite often as price trades in a narrower and narrower range.
I have marked last Wednesday as a multi-week high
for reasons discussed below in the hourly commentary. With price on the
downside of the multi-week cycle, price should have dropped below the blue MD MA
and turned that average downward. Price instead has found frequent support at
the MD MA, something that happens when we are on the upside of the MW cycle. It is possible that the green MW MA which is in close proximity to the MD MA is
what is providing the support, which would indicate that price is on the upside
of the multi-month cycle. The lower MW high would argue that price is on the
downside of the multi-month cycle, however, so that argument doesn't carry much
weight. The fact is that price is forming a flag/triangle pattern, and those
patterns always make it difficult to determine where price is in the various
cycles. I can only assume that price's behavior after the Fed's decision on
interest rates will provide more answers.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its
24Hr low early afternoon on weekly pivot support. Price in overnight trading
made a lower 24Hr high against daily pivot resistance - classic behavior of
price on the downside of the multi-day cycle. I have marked the Sunday evening
high as a MD high, and since this is a lower MD high than last Wednesday's MD
high, it also means that last Wednesday was a multi-week high.
A 24Hr low is not projected until early afternoon,
but it is possible that price has made an early 24Hr low on weekly pivot/MW MA
support. I expect very little volatility today as there is little
reason to assume that price will break above monthly pivot resistance or below
weekly pivot resistance today with everyone so absorbed with tomorrow's Fed announcement.
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