The monthly chart shows price in September thus far
having made a lower high and higher low than the August bar. Price is below the
white MY MA and the declining pink MM MA, behavior associated with being on the
downside of the multi-year cycle. Price has thus far found support on the
yearly pivot (dashed white line); we are in the time window to see a multi-year
low, and the yearly pivot is a logical place for price to find support for this
low.
After an extremely right-translated cycle high,
price normally makes a higher high on the next upturn of the cycle. In the case
of the multi-year cycle, this can be seen on the monthly chart with the prior
two MY cycles. While I rarely mention technical indicators in this blog (and
rarely show them), it is important to notice the yellow RSI at the bottom of the
chart remained above the 50 level for each of these multi-year lows. Should
price make its MY low (or already have made its MY low) on yearly pivot support,
in an extremely right-translated cycle, with the RSI remaining above 50, the
expectation would be for price to make a new high in its next MY cycle upswing.
Should price continue to languish for several more weeks and take the RSI below
50 and price below its yearly pivot on a month-close basis, it is more likely
that the next MY high will be a lower high.
The weekly chart shows price last week making a
higher low and higher high versus the prior week's candle, but closing little-changed for the week. Price this week has opened below its weekly pivot but has
thus far continued to find support on the green MW MA, behavior indicative of
price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. A MM high is projected
for the week of 10/15, but it is possible that higher timeframe resistance in
the form of the MM MA, MY MA and monthly pivot could see this MM high put in
early. Until price trades below the MW MA and turns that average downward,
however, we must assume that price remains on the upside of the MM
cycle.
The daily chart shows price last week making a
Thursday high against MM MA resistance and falling sharply on Friday down to MW
MA support. Price thus far in today's candle has again found support on the MW MA and is currently testing MD MA,
weekly pivot and monthly pivot resistance from below.
Thursday was certainly a multi-day high, but it
remains uncertain whether it was also a multi-week high. The MW high is
projected for today but could have been seen on Thursday or could extend in time
to later this week; behavior will tell us when the high is in, not projections. If price continues to trade below the MD MA and that average turns downward (as
it is close to doing), it will confirm Thursday as a MW high and leave price
vulnerable for the remainder of the week as the MW low is projected for
Thursday.
The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high
and multi-day high on Thursday on the news-induced spike. Price then traded
down sharply until finding its 24Hr low in Sunday evening trading. It is
possible that an intervening 24Hr high and low were seen between the obvious
high and low, but this is mostly irrelevant to the analysis. We are due (or
overdue) to see a 24Hr high, and the MD MA and weekly pivot could easily provide
resistance to put in this high. If so, the gold Session MA which has supported
price out if its Sunday evening low will cease to provide support and will turn
downward as price begins searching for its 24Hr low.
We are in the timeframe for price to make a MD low,
and it is possible that the Sunday evening 24Hr low was also a MD low. Note
that this low is at the same general level where price found support for two
other 24Hr lows on 9/14 and 9/15, the latter of which was also a MD low.
Because this level has obvious importance as support to price, a break below
this area in the future would have bearish implications.
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