Friday 9/25/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and lower close.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading higher, above the MD MA. Yesterday was the projection for the multi-week low.   It appears that it was at least a multi-day low, and remains to be seen whether it was also a multi-week low.   If it was, it would be bullish in that it would continue a pattern of higher MW lows and higher MW highs since the August multi-month low. The next MW high is not projected until 10/6, and it will be interesting to see if price can overcome MM MA which provided resistance for the last MW high.

While having the MW low made exactly on projection is nice, one must not allow a feeling of "wanting to be right" to bias their outlook on what price is actually doing.   We must remain open to the possibility that price is still on the downside of the MW cycle and that the MW low will occur next week . Until the MD MA turns upward and price sees a higher MD low made, there is no confirmation that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low during the noon hour and rallying into the close.  Price continued to move higher overnight until it found resistance at the green MW MA.   We are overdue to see a 24Hr high, and it is quite possible that the high was seen several bars ago under MW MA resistance.  Should price continue to trade below the gold Session MA and turn that average downward as price tests the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, we will know the 24Hr high has been seen.

Given that price has eclipsed both the MD MA and the prior 24Hr high, it is very likely that yesterday's low was a multi-day low.  We are in the timeframe to see a MD high, and the MW MA would be a likely place for that MD high to be made.   If so, we could see price trade down sharply throughout the day.   If we have not yet seen the MD high, price should find support at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot for its 24Hr low by noon and then trade higher in to the close.  Should price find support at the blue MD MA for its 24Hr low it would be even more bullish as it would support the notion that yesterday was also a multi-week low.