Monday 9/28/2015

The monthly chart shows price in September having made a lower high and higher low versus August.   Price found resistance at the MM MA and MY MA and is also trading below its monthly pivot and the yearly pivot.  This is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, and while we are in the timeframe for a multi-year low to be seen we have not yet seen any evidence that last month's low was the MY low.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low and having found resistance at the monthly pivot and MW MA.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-month cycle; if price does not rally above the green MW MA by week's end and turn that average upward, it will confirm the high of two week's ago as a multi-month high. The MM high was not projected to occur until next week.

If price is on the downside of the MM cycle, a MM low is not projected until mid-November- leaving plenty of time for price to move lower.  We have seen a series of half-span shifts of the MM highs and lows, however, so we must keep an open mind that price will again make an earlier than projected MM low.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Monday high and Thursday low, a typical scenario in a downtrend.  The blue MD MA provided resistance to price throughout the week, just as it provided support to price as it searched for its multi-week high.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and while it is possible that the low came on projection last Thursday, it is equally possible that the MW low has yet to be made.  When the MD MA ceases to act as resistance and instead acts as support, we will know that price is on the upside of the MW cycle. A MW high is projected for 10/6.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high at MW MA resistance and dropping for the remainder of the day until making its 24Hr low in Sunday evening trading.  Price then found another 24Hr high overnight under daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance, indicating that price is again on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   I have marked the Thursday low as a MD low and the Friday high as a MD high.  Unless Thursday was also a MW low, price should fall throughout the day today as we are on the downside of the daily, multi-day and multi-week cycles.  Should price instead find an early 24Hr low and take out the overnight high, it will be a strong indication that Thursday was indeed a MW low.