Tuesday 9/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and sharply lower close as price continued on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower low but is currently trading above yesterday's close.

Price seems to have found support on a bottom channel line that was drawn last Wednesday as a parallel to an upper channel line connecting two multi-week highs.  We are in the timeframe to see price make a multi-week low, and it is possible that support for this low will be found on this line.  When the low is in, price will trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward. The next MW high is projected for 10/6.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high yesterday under daily pivot and 24Hr MA well before the NY open.   It was mentioned that if the Sunday evening low was not a MD low, that price should trade down throughout the day.   Price finally made a 24Hr low in overnight trading and is currently trading above the 24Hr MA in search of its 24Hr high.

Price is currently due to find its 24Hr high, and the 24Hr MA or daily pivot will be logical places to make that high if price is still on the downside of the MD cycle.  While price could easily see another 24Hr low or two before the MD cycle would become overdue, it is important to remember that we are in the window for price to be seeing a MW low.  This higher timeframe cycle could easily see price make an early MD low, so it is possible that the overnight 24Hr low was also a MD low and MW low.  If so, I would expect the daily cycle to extend in time and price should see a strong rally to at least the blue MD MA and likely the weekly pivot at 1928.50.  An alternative scenario would be price having already seen its 24Hr high (or making its 24Hr high right at the open), and then price falling into a double bottom or a half-span higher 24Hr low before starting its rally to higher timeframe resistance.  Of course, a break below the overnight low would indicate that price is still searching for its MW low, but the odds will be even higher that the next 24Hr low will also be the MD and MW low.