When is a 20+ point move in the S&P a reasonable expectation?

From this morning's premarket comments with S&P e-mini trading below 2045:  

 Price so far is finding support on the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. I expect this support to hold and price to take out yesterday's high and test resistance in the area of the monthly pivot (2064.75) or MD MA (currently 2067.50 and falling).

Was a 20+ point day in the S&P a reasonable expectation?  It was today, as I pointed out in this mornings post.  Coming out of a multi-day low, price will test the 24Hr MA and/or daily pivot for support before testing the MD MA for resistance. What's next? If the overnight trading also marked a multi-week low, then the weekly pivot (currently the 2084 area) will be tested within a few days.  If the multi-week low is still in front of us, then price should retest the overnight lows in the same timeframe.  More on that in tomorrow's commentary.