Tuesday, 3/24/15

Yesterday opened above the daily pivot, pushed higher to take out Friday's high by one tick, then sold off, closing below Friday's close and a tick below the daily pivot. So far today price has opened below the daily pivot and has made a lower high and higher low versus yesterday. We continue to be overdue for a muti-week high, and resistance from the late February/early March multi-month high has thus far held.

Price is near the upsloping blue MD MA. If we are still searching for the MWH, then this MA or the weekly pivot will support price until that high is found. Should price break below these support areas, the MWH is in and price will look for support at the green MW MA, MM MA, or monthly pivot. The MW low is projected for the last day of the month, so there is still time left for price to see one more multi-day correction then give a last push to new highs before the MWH is found.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on the daily pivot at 7:00am yesterday, then making a 24Hr high at 11:00am, one tick higher than the prior 24Hr high. This was essentially a double-top of 24Hr highs, which usually marks a multi-day high. The fact that price then spent the next 11hrs below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA also points to a MDH.

With price having spent much of the prior three bars above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, it is possible that a 24Hr low was made at the 5:00am candle, two bars before projection. A higher session low due around the 11:00 bar is needed to confirm this. This potential low was made right in the window for the projection for the multi-day low. If we have indeed seen the MD low already, it is bullish that the MD MA was not threatened on the pullback. Price finding support on or above the MD MA for the MDL indicates we are still on the upside of the MW cycle. Should price not make a higher session low, it could mean that the 24Hr low (and thus MD low) is not yet in and price will make a more forceful test of the MD MA. A 24Hr high is projected for the 11:00am candle, and it is possible that it was made already made several hours ago just above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA; if that is the case, price will spend the entire day on the backside of the 24Hr cycle and MD cycle and the blue MD MA or weekly pivot will surely be tested.