It's Alive!!!

After a long hiatus and much reluctance, I have decided to revive the blog for my own educational purposes.  So without further ado, lets get to the charts.

Six trading days into the monthly bar price has done nothing overtly bearish; price remains above the monthly pivot and the multi-month MA. A multi-year cycle high is projected for April, and while this could extend several months later, it is also fully plausible that it could have already been seen in the February high. This scenario will be touched on further in the weekly chart commentary.

The weekly chart shows price last week closing below the weekly pivot and opening this week under the new weekly pivot and the green multi-week MA. Note that the MA is now rolling over, a bearish indication if it stands at week's end; it is important to remember that price has all week to close higher and bend the moving average upward. With a multi-month high projection over a month away, it is very important for the bulls that price find support on the monthly pivot and resume its march higher. Failure to find support on the monthly pivot would indicate the multi-month high was seen two bars ago, roughly a half-span shift of the projection and an indication that the larger multi-year cycle has seen its high and is exerting downward pressure on the multi-month cycle.

The daily chart shows a large trend lower bar on Friday and price today opening below the daily pivot, the weekly pivot, and the MD and MW MAs. The MM MA and monthly pivot are close below and, as mentioned above, it is critical to the bull case that price find support here. If 2/17 (marked with a "?") was a MW high followed a couple of days later by a MW low, then the next MW low is projected for Wednesday; higher timeframe support of the monthly pivot and MM MA could easily put in this MW low earlier, however. I would have preferred to see today trade down to find that support and put in a Monday low typical of the Monday low/Friday high scenario seen during uptrends. It is possible that the near touch (less than a point off) of the monthly pivot was close enough to put in the bottom, but only time and price will tell for sure. A multi-day low is due late after-hours Tuesday. I am skipping a 60 minute chart today, but currently price is searching for a 24Hr high and the daily pivot at 2080.42 or the weekly pivot at 2083.92 are logical places to find resistance for that high. Where price finds its next 24Hr low (due just after the NY close) will provide information as to whether the multi-day low lays behind or ahead of us.