Monday 3/16/15 The bear case strengthens.

The monthly candle (not shown) is only half complete, and thus far it has made a lower high and is currently below the monthly pivot but above the MM MA; it tells neither a bullish nor bearish story at this point. The weekly chart shows price last week having closed below the weekly pivot and the downsloping green MW MA, indicating that price is on the downside of the MM cycle. Price also closed under the monthly pivot and slightly below the MM MA. This is behavior typically indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, a bearish scenario. It is worth looking at the price action highlighted in the yellow circle on the weekly chart; price in December of last year also closed well below the weekly pivot and bent the MW MA downward, only to erase nearly all of those gains the following week. A difference that has to be noted, however, is that price held MM MA and monthly pivot support during that decline. So where does that leave us? Price appears to have made a lower multi-month high halfway earlier than the normal time span (a half-span shift, commonly occurring during turns of a larger cycle). Thus far, price is still above the uptrend line drawn from the last two MM lows. A break of this line would add even more strength to the bear case. I would need to see price close above the monthly pivot and turn the MW MA up before easing concerns of a larger drop on the horizon.

The daily chart shows price closing the prior candle (Friday) below the monthly and weekly pivots and the MM and MW MAs. It is quite possible that the double bottom that occured Wednesday and Thursday marked the MW low. The current candle is currently trading above the daily and weekly pivot and is trying to turn the blue MD MA upward. It's ability to do so would confirm the MW low was seen last week. A MW high is due this Wednesday. The timing and location of that high will tell us the status of the MM cycle. If that cycle is rolling over as the weekly chart indicates, a lower MW high should be found (likely under the green MW MA) and price will take out last week's lows.

The hourly chart shows price has been whipsawing through the horizontal line representing the monthly pivot. A 24Hr. low was made at noon on Friday and price has since worked its way back up through the MD MA and weekly pivot. Price is overdue for a 24Hr high, and a 24Hr low is due at noon. A MD low is due tomorrow, but the ability of price to cut through higher timeframe resistance indicates that the low might have been seen on Friday. The gold session MA is supporting price into the 24Hr high, and when that support breaks the high will be in. The ability of price to then find support on the MD MA or weekly pivot for the next 24Hr low would tell us that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.