Thursday 3/19/15

The Fed verbiage which was expected to be the most pivotal event of the week for the markets did not disappoint; the market went from probing the MD MA beneath the monthly pivot and MM MA prior to the release to surging above the MW MA and downsloping trendline. Price being above monthly resistance and the MW MA is behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-week cycle. We are currently overdue for price to find a multi-week top; the fact that this top was not made underneath the declining MW MA has bullish implications for the multi-month cycle. These bullish implications should allow for price to extend further in time before finding the MW high, or at a minimum have price holding monthly support near 2060.50 or at the weekly pivot (currently 2049.33 ) for its next MW low, due March 31st. Failure to either 1) take out the February highs or 2) find support for the next MW low at the above mentioned areas would thrust the ball back into the bear's court.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low 2 bars past projection on monthly pivot and MD MA support before finding its price high at the close (a possibility mentioned in yesterday's commentary). I am marking the lower price high overnight as the 24Hr high, however, as it fits better with a normal time projection and was also the highest close of the hourly bars. Price is currently testing the 24Hr MA for support to put in the 24Hr low which is due early afternoon. There is plenty of time left in the session cycle for price to probe lower to the daily pivot at 2081.42 for support for this low. A MD high is due overnight tonight, so price should find support at one of these levels for the low. As always, the session cycle MA will shepherd price into this low, and the eventual break of the session MA on a closing basis will be a solid indicator that the low is in. We will then see if the bulls can surpass yesterday's highs and extend the MW high further right in time.