The daily chart shows price yesterday opening
beneath the daily pivot and monthly pivot and making a lower high and lower low
compared to Wednesday. Price today has thus far opened above the daily pivot
and has formed an inside bar. In Monday morning's commentary it was mentioned
that the MW MA on the weekly chart had turned up, but that there was plenty of
time left in the week for price to turn lower and bend the MW MA back down with
it; this has indeed happened on the weekly chart (not shown). Price is still
searching for the multi-week low projected for Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week, and possibly for the multi-month low that could be six more weeks out.
The hourly chart shows a 24Hr low being made at the
6:00am bar. I had mentioned that normally I would look to get long out of a
higher session low due at the 12:00pm bar but that lately the 24Hr lows were
leading directly into a 24Hr high. Well, in this instance (and in most
instances), price did make a higher session low at the 11:00am candle five bars
after the 24Hr low (5-7 bars is the session cycle length), and I did take a
profitable long trade, though the 24Hr high came in shortly after.
Price is still overdue for the MD low. The
projection for the 24Hr low was at the 6:00am bar, which thus far has been the
low; if that low holds, then we will mark yesterday morning's low as the MD
low. Sadly, even if this is the case, it is quite possible that the overnight
double top against the underside of the monthly pivot marked the MD high. I
will wait until price (hopefully) clears up this situation before making any
such designations.
As with yesterday, price will be in the window for
a session low around the 12:00pm bar. If the 24Hr low is in, this session low
will be a higher low and price will then try to break above 24Hr MA, daily
pivot, and monthly pivot resistance. If that session low takes out this
morning's low, it increases the odds that there was an intervening 24Hr low
between the double top and thus increases the odds that price will decline
throughout the day.
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