Price had a big move up yesterday, closing above MD
and MW MA resistance and weekly pivot and monthly pivot resistance, and just
above MM MA resistance. Thus far today, price has opened above the daily pivot
but is currently trading below it and is testing the weekly pivot for support.
If we are on the upside of the monthly cycle, the weekly pivot should hold;
however, lately price has not respected normal support/resistance areas, instead
passing up and down through them as price forms a triangle. A MW low is
projected for tomorrow. Today is the last day of the month. Anything can
happen, but an important area to watch today is the monthly pivot at 2057.25 on
the downside; a close below that increases the possibility that a multi-year top
was made in February.
The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low
overnight Sunday on 24Hr MA and daily pivot support, then finding two higher
session lows during the day on Session MA support (in gold) on its way to the
24Hr high made at the close. A lower session high was made 5 bars later under
Session MA resistance which confirmed that price was now moving lower in search
of the 24Hr low.
We are currently overdue for the 24Hr low. That
the 24Hr MA or daily pivot could not provide support for this low indicates that
we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle. Price appears to have made at
least a session low (and possibly 24Hr low) in the area of the weekly pivot and
MD MA support. As noted in the daily chart commentary, price is passing through
these areas with greater regularity than normal, so I have less confidence than
normal that price will hold here. The multi-day low is projected for after the
close, and a 24Hr high is projected for the close, adding to the uncertainty.
Increased uncertainty equals fewer trades and smaller position sizes for me. I
expect this to be a very interesting day.
No comments:
Post a Comment