Wednesday 3/18/15 - Patience, Patience

The daily chart shows price yesterday closing with a lower high but above its daily pivot after finding support on the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price thus far today opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it, once again testing MM MA support. If this support can hold and price can break through the down-sloping MW MA (which is now aligning with the green dashed downtrend line), it will indicate that we are on the upside of the MW and MM cycles. This seems odd given the lack of support the MM MA and monthly pivot provided last week, but if we saw a half-span shift of the MM high then there is no reason we could not have also just experienced a half-span shift of the MM low. That discussion will likely wait until Sunday's post, however. If price instead breaks MM support, then I would expect it to test the uptrend line for support in the 2042 area.  Of course with the entire market focused on whether the Fed will remove the word "patient" from their verbiage on interest rates, it is possible the market will trade in a narrow range until their late afternoon announcement.

The hourly chart is one that I find very interesting today. Despite the frequent half-span shifts of the 24Hr highs, the white rectangles show price still adhering to a 24hr cycle: The 24Hr high on 3/16 was exactly 24 bars from the prior high; 24 bars from the 3/16 high was what may be another 24Hr high, though there was another 24Hr high between them; 24 bars from that intervening high appears to have taken us into this morning's 24Hr high. If this pattern holds true, it is possible we could see another high at today's close, despite having just made one a few hours ago. 

 A 24Hr low is due at noon, unless the high at yesterday's close was indeed a 24Hr high in which case there must have been a subsequent 24Hr low; if this is the case, the 24Hr low will extend until the overnight session.  Unless the low extends past the close my initial bias is to assume there was no intervening 24Hr low. Of course, higher timeframe support such as the monthly pivot at 2057.25 could provide support for an early 24Hr low. With the Fed's Janet Yellen speaking this afternoon, anything is possible and I do not expect the situation to clear up until late afternoon at the earliest. Meanwhile, price is trying to put in a higher hourly low, which could lead us into the session high due before 11:00AM.  Be careful today.