Wednesday, 3/25/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the daily pivot and the MD MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently testing the weekly pivot. If we are still searching for the muti-week high, the weekly pivot should provide support and price should move up by week's end. If the overdue MWH was seen on Monday, however, any bounce off the weekly pivot should be short-lived and price should probe lower to the green MW MA, the MM MA, or the monthly pivot in search of support for the MW low due at month's end. We are currently in a Monday high, Wednesday low situation for the week; this is unlikely to stand, so it is more likely that price will either rally to put in a Thursday or Friday high, or continue lower to Thursday or Friday lows. The blue MD MA overhead is the key to the puzzle; if we are on the upside of the MW cycle, price will close back above this MA and retest the highs, but if we are on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD MA will cap any rally attempt until the MW low is in.

Yesterday's discussion mentioned the possibility that the 7:00am EST candle was an early 24Hr high, and, if so, that price would spend the entire day on the backside of the 24Hr. and multi-day cycles. This proved to be the case as price pushed lower into the close. It has moved mostly sideways overnight and is currently little-changed from yesterday's close. We are overdue for the 24Hr. low; it is possible that it occurred overnight at the 1:00am bar, and that a subsequent 24Hr high was made at the 6:00am bar just below the declining 24Hr MA. If so, this is a bearish left-translation of the high and also indicates that we are still searching for the multi-day low which was projected for yesterday morning. If the 24Hr low was made at the 8:00am candle or has yet to be found, then that 24Hr low should also be the MD low and price will then break above the declining 24Hr MA as it searches for the 24Hr high.