Thursday 12/17/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close, closing slightly above the MM MA.  Price early in today's candle has opened above its daily pivot and has made a slightly higher high than yesterday.

With the MD MA having provided support for price yesterday and now curling upward, it is obvious that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  It is still unclear whether price is on the upside or downside of the multi-month cycle.  If price were to reverse course today and close lower, it could be argued that the MM MA provided soft resistance for an early MW high and that price is still on the downside of the MM cycle.  Unfortunately, we are in the timeframe to see a MD high, so a reversal at these levels could very well happen but be nothing more than a correction of the MD cycle.  Price would have to take out the October highs to confirm that we are on the upside of the MM cycle, and while that may happen before the 12/24 projection for the MW high, it is unlikely to happen before a turn of the MD cycle.

The hourly chart shows price rising throughout the day yesterday, pulling back slightly before the Fed's decision to raise rates, then surging higher into the close.  Price drifted modestly lower in after hours trading and appears to have made a 24Hr low overnight just below the Session MA but above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA.  We have since taken out yesterday's high and are currently falling back into a session low.  With a 24Hr high projected for the close, price should find support at the Session MA and turn higher, rising throughout the day.   Failure to do so would indicate that the high several bars ago was a 24Hr high and likely a multi-day high.  In that scenario, price would be expected to drop below the daily pivot and test the MD MA near 2041 today or tomorrow.