Monday 12/7/15 - Perhaps the most important trading week of the year.

The monthly chart shows price in November having made a higher low and higher than October's candle, though the close showed little change.  One week into December's candle, price has opened above its monthly pivot but again has shown little change from November's close.

With price trading above its monthly and yearly pivots and its MM MA and MY MA, it appears that price is trading on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  This would mean that the August low was a multi-year low and that price should be expected to ride MM MA support into the next MY high projected for August 2016.  Until price can make a new all-time high or a higher monthly low on the weekly chart, however, there is still the possibility that price has yet to see its MY low. Each month that passes makes this less and less likely, given that August was already past the projected date for the MY low.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high, lower low and slightly lower close versus the prior week's candle.  Price very early in this week's bar has opened above its weekly pivot but is trading slightly below last week's close.  With price trading above the weekly and monthly pivots and above the MW and MM MAs, it would appear that price is on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, and that the November swing low was a MM low.  This MM low has not yet been confirmed, however, as we have not seen a higher MW on the daily chart since that November low, nor has price been able to eclipse the November MM high.   As in the scenario discussed above on the monthly chart, the longer price takes without taking out the November low, the more likely it is that it was indeed a MM low.  If it was, price should be on the upside of the MM cycle until its next projected MM high in late January 2016.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a MW high on Wednesday followed by a sharp decline on Thursday which found soft support on the MM MA and monthly pivot for a big bounce on Friday.   It is unclear at this point whether Thursday's low was the MW low which was projected for tomorrow.   If price is indeed on the upside of the MY and MM cycles, then price would be expected to find support for an early MW low at this level; this higher MW low would confirm the mid-November low as a higher MM low, which would in turn confirm the August low as a multi-year low.  So one can see that the action this week is very important, as a move above last week's high confirms that we are on the upside of the MY, MM and MW cycles, while a move below last week's low would leave open the bearish possibility that we are on the downside of each of those cycles.

The hourly chart shows price falling sharply on Thursday into its MD low, then making a higher 24Hr low late Friday morning and surging higher into the close.  Price has moved mostly sideways in overnight/pre-market trading, finding support on the MD and MW MAs but not being able to move markedly higher.

We are overdue to see a 24Hr high, and it is possible that the high was seen five bars ago as price is now trading below the gold Session MA and is starting to turn that MA downward.  A 24Hr low is projected for just after the NY open, and if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle then price should find support for this low right here at the 24Hr MA/MD MA/MW MA confluence or slightly lower at the daily pivot/weekly pivot confluence area.  We are in the timeframe to see a MD high with either today's or tomorrow's 24Hr high, however, which combined with the volatility of the past two days and the MW low not being projected until tomorrow means a sharp move lower cannot be counted out.   As mentioned above, what price does this week is hugely meaningful to both the bullish and bearish case.