After finding support Monday on the trendline drawn
from prior multi-month lows, price yesterday made a higher low and higher high
than Monday, closing above the weekly pivot and MD MA. Price today has opened
above its daily pivot and is currently trading above yesterday's high. The
action of the last two days indicates that price is on the upside of the MW
cycle, and I have marked Monday as the MW low.
The MW high is projected for 12/24, but if we are
still on the downside of the MM cycle then price will likely find resistance at
the confluence area of the MW MA, MM MA and monthly pivot near 2057 to see this high put in early. If Monday
was also a MM low, I would expect price to exceed this level en route to new
highs by the late January projection for the next MM high. While I
believe the odds favor the bullish scenario, I must emphasize that risk is still
very high for a large downside move. An early MW high under MW MW resistance
would be bearish and leave open the possibility that the August lows will be
revisited and possibly taken out.
The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising until
early afternoon when it found its 24Hr high just below monthly pivot
resistance. It appears that price found its 24Hr low just after the close on MD
MA support (and at the level that became the new daily pivot one hour later). Price then drifted higher in overnight and pre-market trading and is currently
trading just above the monthly pivot and below the MW MA.
A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon, and
it is possible that the next 24Hr high will also be a multi-day high. This
means we could be on the downside of the 24Hr and MD cycles when the Fed
announces their decision on interest rates; if so, a negative reaction to the
decision would be the expected outcome.
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