Monday 12/21/15

The monthly chart shows price thus far in December having made a lower high and higher low than November.   Price is trading below its monthly pivot but just above the MM and MY MAs, leaving us uncertain as to whether price is on the upside of a new multi-year cycle or if price will soon take out the August lows in search of its MY low.  Bulls certainly want the month to close above the MM and MY MAs, and would prefer a close above the monthly pivot, while bears would prefer the opposite.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low versus the prior week, closing at the MY MA but below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW and MM MAs. This behavior indicates that price was still on the downside of the multi-month cycle, searching for its overdue MM low.  Early in this week's candle price has opened below its weekly pivot and is trading modestly above last week's close.   If last week was the MM low, price should soon trade above the green MW MA and turn that average upward.   If we have not yet seen the MM low, price will obviously take out last week's low within the next few weeks.

The daily chart shows price last week making a MW low on Monday but appearing to find resistance at the monthly pivot and MM MA before moving sharply lower on Thursday and Friday.  While it is possible that price is merely correcting on the downside of the MD cycle, we must be aware of the possibility that price saw an early, lower MW high caused by that higher timeframe resistance.   If the former case is correct then price should bounce immediately and reclaim the MD MA and start to turn that average upward.  If the latter bearish scenario is correct, price will be moving lower for the next two weeks searching for its next MW low projected for 1/5/16.

The hourly chart shows price making a MD high on Thursday and falling with little pause until finding its 24Hr low just after the close on Friday.  Price has since moved modestly higher and was able to move above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that Friday's low was likely a MD low.  As mentioned above, if price is on the upside of the MW cycle and has merely been correcting into a MD low, price has no excuse to not move higher this week.  A 24Hr high is projected for late morning, but it is possible that high will be extended in time if price is on the upside of the MD and MW cycles.  Bulls need to see a higher 24Hr low, projected for near the close, to confirm that Friday's low was a MD low.