Monday 12/14/15

The monthly candle shows price thus far in December having made a slightly lower high and slightly higher low than the November candle.  Price is currently testing the MM MA and MY MA and should find support at this level if price is on the upside of the MY cycle.   If price is not on the upside of the MY cycle, then that means the August low was not a MY low and price should soon fall below that level.  Price has done everything it can over the past two months to keep both arguments plausible.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and sharply lower low and close versus the prior week.  Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly pivot and made a lower low, testing the MY MA and November's low.   It had appeared that the November low was likely a multi-month low, as it found support at the MM MA one week after the projection for the MM low to be seen.  With price trading below the MW and MM MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots, however, it appears that we are still on the downside of the MM cycle.  If the November low was not the MM low then that low is very overdue; the extension past projection for the MM low has bearish connotations, but price should soon find a bottom and bounce into its MM high projected for the third week of January.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday high and Friday low (MH/FL), the bearish version of the ML/FH scenario often discussed in this blog.  Price early in today's candle has opened below its daily pivot and is just several ticks above the November multi-week low.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and it likely that the next MW low will also be the overdue MM low (if the November low doesn't hold).  A MW high is projected for Christmas eve, but until price can trade above the blue MD MA we must assume that price remains on the downside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and dropping throughout the day before finding its 24Hr low just after the close (as projected).  Price rallied in Sunday evening trading back up to the daily pivot (and new weekly pivot), where it again found resistance for its 24Hr high and sold off below Friday's low.  Price is currently bouncing into a Session high, but will likely find resistance at the current level and then probe lower as it searches for its 24Hr low projected for after the close (again).

We are now in the timeframe to expect the next 24Hr low (or the one after) to be a MD low. Given the overdue nature of the MW low (and possibly MM low), there is a very good chance that price will see a strong rally starting some time this week.  A move above the weekly pivot will be a good clue that this rally is kicking off.