Tuesday 12/29/15

Yesterday saw price make a lower high and lower low, closing below its daily pivot but finding support on the weekly pivot and MD and MW MAs.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is challenging Thursday's high.  With the action of the last several days, the blue MD MA has turned upward, signalling that price is on the upside of the MD cycle.  This would mean that the mid-December swing high was merely a multi-day high, and that price is still searching for its overdue multi-week high.

Should price eclipse the mid-December high, which I feel is most likely, it would indicate that this MW cycle was very extended and likely indicate that the December MW low was also a MM low.  This would be a bullish scenario that would strengthen the odds that price is on the upside of a new multi-year cycle and mean new all-time highs should be seen in early 2016. Alternatively, a double-top with the mid-December high would make sense, as the tops would straddle the projected date of the MW high, a somewhat common occurrence that would have neutral connotations.  Lastly, price could fall short of the mid-December high and leave that high as an early MW high, but I think that this bearish outcome is the least likely.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support on the weekly pivot for its 24Hr low.  It was mentioned in yesterday's blog that the weekly pivot would be the logical place to find support for its daily and multi-day lows, and that is indeed what happened.  This was very bullish as the higher MD low signals that price is on the upside of the MW cycle, a status that was unclear until the MD low was confirmed.

We are well overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and a 24Hr low is projected for late morning. It is possible that we will see an inversion, with the high being seen late morning.  Price should find support for its eventual 24Hr low on the white 24Hr MA or the daily pivot, as price continues on the upside of the MD cycle.