Weekly discussion and Pre-Market Analysis for 6/25/12

Good morning for Monday, June 25th. The monthly chart shows price this month has thus far made a lower low and lower high, finding support on the MY MA and resistance at the MM MA. Whether or not March was an earlier-than-projected multi-year high is the major question at this point. If so, the MY MA support will eventually break and start acting as resistance; if not, the support will hold and we will get back above the MM MA. How price closes out this month will help in answering this question.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and higher low but closing below the MM MA and monthly pivot. Price this week has opened below the weekly pivot and taken out last week's low. This behavior could be an indication that last week was a lower MM high, which would be very bearish. A turn so quickly after a MM low would also have bearish implications. It is possible, since we have not yet seen a higher multi-week low, that the 6/8 candle was not a multi-month low and that we are still searching for that low.

The daily chart shows price making a MW high early in the week and then trading back below the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low than Friday. We are overdue for the projected MW low; it will be interesting to see if the MW MA can provide soft support for this eventual low. A turn early this week would make for an extremely right-translated MW high; a more center-translated cycle would have price trading down into next week.

The hourly chart shows price late afternoon Friday putting in a 24Hr high under daily pivot and monthly pivot resistance, behavior indicating we are on the downside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a multi-day low. We are also overdue for a 24Hr low; it is likely a break of the session MA will indicate the 24Hr low is in. A 24Hr high is projected for today's close.

A break of the brown session moving average should provide for good long entries today as a 24Hr high is not due until the close.  If we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle, price should find resistance at the white 24Hr MA or the daily pivot in the 1325 area; if we are coming out of a multi-day low, the move up will be even more rewarding.