Market Analysis for 6/22/12

Good morning for Friday, June 22nd. The daily chart shows a large, red candle for yesterday as price opened above the daily pivot, made a lower high and lower low and took out the weekly and monthly pivots in the process. Today price has opened well below the daily pivot and has thus far bent the MD MA downward (though that could change as the candle develops). It appears we have finally found the overdue MW high. Due to the extreme right-translation of the MW high, we are already overdue for a MW low.  While price could drop below the green MW MA, I would expect price to find "soft" support there and not dip below Tuesday's low in the 1300 area.  

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high an hour before the NY open followed by trend day down into the close where it made a 24Hr low. I had mentioned in the update that it would a possible trend-down day and was correct, but we never got even a token bounce out of the morning's session low for me to go short.  This is price behavior associated with being on the downside of both the 24Hr and multi-day cycles and, given the lack of support from many MAs and pivots on the way down, likely the multi-week cycle as well. We are overdue for a MD low due to the extreme right-translation of the MD high. Currently, price is fluctuating around the session MA as it searches for a 24Hr high; assuming my 24Hr high/low designations are correct, we are overdue to find that high due to the shorter-than-normal 24Hr cycles as the higher timeframe cycles turned. The 24Hr MA is hard down and racing to meet price rather than price heading up to meet the moving average. A 24Hr low is projected for 11:30am Central, though a more normal cycle could bring it closer to the close. The sesson cycle is difficult to determine this morning as price has flagged around the session MA in a tight trading range.

I expect little upward movement in price today as we are overdue for the 24Hr high and the daily pivot and monthly pivot are likely to cap any rally.  Should price break yesterday's low in early trading it should provide a good short opportunity until late afternoon.